Tin finished 2013 as the darling of the London Metal Exchange (LME). After a year of major changes within the industry, analysts are tipping the global tin market deficit to rise and prices to follow suit in 2014.
Tin became the best-performing base metal on the LME last year with a fall of only 2.7 per cent from 2012. The commodity rallied in the second half of the year, with the tin price dropping in February but recovering by September with a six-month high of US$23,500 per tonne.
Stellar has previously reported on the changes recently made to Indonesia’s export regulations that require tin producers to trade tin on the Indonesian Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) before being exported. After a slow start, tin trades rose 85 per cent on the ICDX between October and November, appeasing analysts’ concerns about the effect of Indonesia tightening its control on exports would have on the market.
The International Tin Research Institute (ITRI) recently predicted the tin deficit will rise to 12,400 tonnes in 2014, nearly double the 7,400 tonne deficit seen in 2013. ITRI forecasts the result of this deficit will see the price for tin rise from US$22,289 per tonne in late November to average US$26,000 per tonne in 2014.
The predicted deficit and increase of the tin price is positive news for projects in development, including Stellar’s Heemskirk Tin Project in Tasmania. In 2014, Stellar will continue to optimise the Pre-feasibility Study results with exploration of open pit targets at St Dizier, drilling of high grade targets and resource expansion drilling at Heemskirk and further metallurgical testing to improve recovery and concentrate grade.
Source: Tin Investing News, Reuters, International Tin Research Institute