The tin price has outperformed other LME traded metals over recent weeks and spreads have tightened. The apparent trigger for the latest price action has been reports of disruptions to shipments from Indonesia as a result of a change in local market regulations. Indonesia is the world’s second-largest tin producer and the leading supplier to the international market. At the same time, there have been clear signs recently of an upturn in tin demand and on our estimates the global tin market was already on course to record a small deficit this year, before these latest developments in Indonesia. As such, the short-term outlook is price positive, although it should be noted this comes with Indonesian policy risk and the caveat that outside of the LME, at least, there are reported to be reasonable levels of stocks.

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