Bloomberg recently carried out a poll among Indonesian smelters assessing future exports. The results indicate an expected median export of 16,000 tonnes for the fourth quarter of 2014. Lower prices and stricter controls are cited as drivers behind the prediction.
However, ITRI predicts Q4 exports between 20,000 and 25,000 tonnes, though does concede that “controls on illegal mining do appear to be getting tighter and the new export regulation will greatly reduce exports of tin in non-ingot form”.
ITRI’s predicted export rate would still place annual exports at around 80,000 tonnes, the lowest since 2007.
Over the past few months, Indonesian police have been cracking down on illegal tin mining – particularly in protected areas – and these tightened controls combined with dropping prices and new export regulations are likely to have contributed to lower sales.
The new regulations will come into effect from November 1 and are likely to impact the price of tin.